US EV Forecasts
The USA DOE (Dept. of Energy) has provided a very detailed EV forecast for the US. CAR research has done the same. The results are compared below.
At this time both of these forecasts are optimistic. As the last table below shows, actual sales to date are estimated to be only about 1/10 of the CAR forecast for the year 2011. Note again that US sales to date are based on somewhat sparse data and have been well rounded. Please report any errors/inconsistencies.
The Edmunds Company reports total EV sales of 78,523 for the first 3 months of 2011. The Toyota Prius alone sold 54,609 units. Honda at 11,354 and Ford at 7,704 make up the bulk at 73,667 or nearly 94% of total EV sales for the period.
Electric Vehicle Markets
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2020 Global PHEV-HEV sales forecasts Total Year 2020 LDV sales assumed 71,000,000
Estimated World EV Sales - Dec. 2011
2020 Global BEV sales forecasts
EV trucks are selling once again
Over 1,000,000 Toyota Prius sales and 4,000,000 Toyota-Lexus hybrids in all
Electric Vehicle Markets
This page gives an overview of world EV markets and a few forecasts. EV markets will likely be concentrated in four main areas: Europe, China, the USA and Japan. BEV sales at the close of 2011 were approximately 60,000 units. It is forecast that some 250,000 EV cars and trucks may be sold in 2012.
Some of the latest data from JD Powers shows a 1/3 to 2/3 split between BEV and PHEV/HEV markets in the next 8 years. The majority of these vehicles will likely be HEV since they already have a place in the market. Toyota for instance has passed the 3,000,000 mark in Prius sales.
It appears that the BEV will slowly gain market share though. As battery and ultracap improvements continue and oil prices head upward, the BEV position should continue to move up.
One more study: The Pike Research Organization is predicting the market to grow to some 2.9% electric and plug-in electric vehicles by the year 2017. Good news if true.
Worldwide EV sales leaders so far are Mitsubishi and Nissan. The Mitsubishi i-Miev has moved some 14,000 cars with Nissan trailing at about 9,000 electric cars marketed. Mitsubishi does have a year and a half lead on the Leaf however.
Pike Research is Bullish on Electric Motorcycles and Scooters
One EV market witnessing real growth is the eScooter and eMotorcycle segment. Pike feels that sales in Western Europe will double annually by 2017, and increase markedly in East Europe and the US in the same time frame. The firm says China can expect to market an average of 8 million units per year, while World total sales will go from 17 million in 2017, to 138 million by the year 2017.
Rental car companies Bullish on Electric Cars
Hertz rental agency plans to up its electric car fleet from 2,000 to 3,000. The upgrade is based on demand in New York, Washington, San Francisco, and London. The company plans to expand the EV fleet to include markets in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen, China. Electric cars leased include the Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Volt and Smart Electric Drive.
The Enterprise company offers electric car rentals in 11 California cities. You can rent an EV in:
Santa Barbara, Palm Springs, Encino, Newport Beach, Riverside, Ontario, Pasadena, San Diego, San Francisco, Santa Monica and Thousand Oaks. Make your next rental electric!
Electric Motorcycles are Booming
Worldwide Nissan Leaf Sales were about 17,000 by October, 2011
IDC Energy forecasts
Li-Ion battery prices
dropping to $400/kWh by the year 2015
The EV Charging Equipment market in Europe is forecast by Pike Research to grow from $90 million in 2012 to nearly 1.3 billion by 2020.
The PHEV market is forecast by Pike to grow to 152,000 annual sales by the year 2017.
The electric scooter market is forecast by Pike Research to grow from 12 million today to 103 million by 2018. 91 million of those will be in China.
that 10% of new car sales will be battery electric and plug in electric by year 2040.
The EV bus and Taxi market has been forecast to grow to $60 billion by 2022.